NFL Odds

Listing the Buffalo Bills as the best bet for 2010 in the AFC will shock some, amaze others and leave many believing Chance Harper has lost what little mind he had left. But under new head coach Chan Gailey, the Bills should be winners against the NFL betting spreads as they likely head towards a vanilla 7-9 straight up record. Meanwhile the Kansas City Chiefs might be the best wager to top season win totals in the AFC.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Super Bowl XLV champions, the Buffalo Bills.

Ah, that was good for a laugh. The Bills are actually near the bottom of the pile at 100-1 betting odds to win the Super Bowl. But if you want to make some serious money this year, you need to buy low and sell high. Let’s take a look at the four most profitable teams from the AFC in 2009 – they weren’t so hot in 2008.

Indianapolis Colts
2009: 14-2 SU, 10-5-1 ATS
2008: 12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS

Cleveland Browns
2009: 5-11 SU, 10-6 ATS
2008: 4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS

New York Jets
2009: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
2008: 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS

Denver Broncos
2009: 8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS
2008: 8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS

The Colts deserve an asterisk – they punted their last two games (to the Jets and Bills) after nailing down the top seed in the conference. The other three teams were textbook examples of shopping in the bargain bin. The Jets and Broncos started the 2009 season with quarterback downgrades, at least on paper. But they also started the season with new coaches who got the most out of the players they had available. The Browns had a new coach (Eric Mangini) and eventually were smart enough to dump QB Derek Anderson and his 42.1 passer rating.

Who will make the big turnaround in 2010? Only one team in the AFC has a new coach this year, and surprise, it’s the Bills. Chan Gailey takes over from the departed Dick Jauron, who was jettisoned nine games into the 2009 campaign. The Bills went 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS under Jauron before finishing the year 3-4 SU and ATS under interim coach Perry Fewell, including a gift-wrapped victory over the Colts in the season finale.

Gailey’s hire was met with shrugged shoulders in Buffalo. Fans there were hoping for a bigger name, but Gailey did a respectable job in his two years at the helm of the Dallas Cowboys, leading them to the playoffs in 1998 and 1999 before getting the ax. He’ll bring an old-school offensive mentality to a team that badly needs it. Remember how offensive co-ordinator Turk Schonert was fired before the start of the 2009 regular season because his plays were too complex for Jauron’s liking? That won’t happen this year.

Expect instead to see a lot of C.J. Spiller. The No. 9 pick in the 2010 draft was a big-time player for four years at Clemson; Spiller possesses blazing speed and soft hands, which should go a long way in making up for Buffalo’s deficiencies at quarterback and on the offensive line. All QB Trent Edwards (73.8 passer rating) needs to do this year is hand the ball off or dump it to Spiller and the two incumbent tailbacks, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch.

Buffalo’s ATS chances are further enhanced by the arrival of defensive co-ordinator George Edwards, who will install a simple 3-4 scheme that suits the current Bills roster, especially inside linebackers Paul Posluszny and Andra Davis. Buffalo ranked No. 27 last year in efficiency against the run – they’ll do better than that in 2010, provided they stay healthy for a change.

The Bills are still likely to finish in the vicinity of 7-9, so they’re not a very good surprise AFC pick if you’re looking at straight-up wins. Of last year’s six losing teams, I like the Kansas City Chiefs (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS) to make the biggest leap. They got off on the right foot last year by hiring Scott Pioli as their new general manager. He’s been busy remaking the Chiefs in the image of the New England Patriots, starting with QB Matt Cassel (89.4 passer rating with the 2008 Pats) and continuing with offensive co-ordinator Charlie Weiss and defensive co-ordinator Romeo Crennel.

Pioli has also done a very good job at the draft table the past two years, landing talents like safety Eric Berry and RB Dexter McCluster. This is how bad teams quietly become good teams. You might want to hold off on betting the Chiefs at 90-1 to win the Super Bowl, but 'over' 6.5 wins isn’t out of reach in the AFC West.

Publish by: Chance Harper